From Dennis Paulson: Paddle-tailed has a narrow line on S2 (see below), while Lance-tipped has that line expanded into a blob. I’ve got a few L-t and many P-t, and they are consistent Also, I think L-t has wider stripes on the front of the thorax pretty consistently.

However, L-t usually have much more blue on the abdomen than yours; in fact I was surprised at how small the spots are in yours, much like Shadow, so I looked critically at Shadow as well. The width of the line on S2 in Shadow is more or less between those of the other two but can be as wide as yours. I then discovered that the pattern on S2 is different in L-t and Shadow, with the blue along the posterior border of the segment extending forward a bit farther, coming closer to the transverse crosslines in the middle, and with a rather narrow indentation on the front edge, in fact looking about like it does in Paddle-tailed In my photos of Shadow, it looks exactly like it does in your photo, not extending as far forward and with a wider dip in the middle.

Also, I think the anterior lateral thoracic stripe in L-t is usually a bit indented on the front edge, always straight in Shadow. That really shows clearly on yours and is probably definitive. Shadow also has broader frontal stripes like Lance-tipped but unlike Paddle-tailed. So I’m thinking that yours is very likely a Shadow, an unusual one with pale markings on S10,